Elon Musk has given up on solar power (on Earth)

Has Elon Musk fixed up connected Tesla’s Master Plans, connected the electrified economy, connected star powerfulness arsenic we cognize it? From the SpaceX IPO filing released yesterday, it definite seems similar it.

A recap for those not enmeshed successful the Musk-verse: Tesla has released four Master Plans implicit the years, and portion details person varied, the done enactment has been electrification of the economy. Musk enactment it champion successful his archetypal edition: “the overarching intent of Tesla motors…is to assistance expedite the determination from a mine-and-burn hydrocarbon system towards a star electrical economy.”

But recently, 1 of Musk’s companies, xAI, has embraced the mine-and-burn hydrocarbon economy, utilizing dozens of unregulated earthy state turbines to powerfulness its information centers with plans to buy $2.8 cardinal more, efficaciously cementing the fossil fuel’s relation successful the company’s AI operations.

It’s a funny crook for a businessman who built his empire connected cleanable vigor — and who has nary qualms directing his companies to bargain from 1 another. SpaceX spent $131 cardinal connected 1,279 Cybertrucks, and xAI has spent $697 cardinal successful the past 2 years connected Tesla Megapacks, it’s grid-scale artillery retention systems that the institution volition usage to negociate highest loads. But truthful far, xAI hasn’t bought a materially important fig of star panels from Tesla.

Solar powerfulness isn’t missing successful the SpaceX filing, it’s conscionable each concentrated connected space, which the institution touts arsenic the aboriginal of information halfway power. Terrestrial star garners a fewer mentions — not arsenic a powerfulness root for xAI information centers but alternatively to amusement however overmuch amended SpaceX thinks space-based star volition be.

It’s nary concealed that Musk and different Silicon Valley executives person go obsessed with space-based star power. SpaceX says that space-based star arrays tin make “more than five-times the energy” of terrestrial ones acknowledgment to 24/7 illumination. As AI information centers person tally into absorption present connected Earth, CEOs similar Musk person started mulling large server racks successful abstraction powered by that 24/7 sunshine. Hammer, conscionable nail.

Even if SpaceX is capable to bring down the outgo of boosting a information halfway into orbit, the economics are challenging astatine best. Power prices for Starlink satellites are multiples higher than what a terrestrial information halfway typically spends, and protecting chips from the rigors of abstraction won’t beryllium casual oregon cheap. It’s besides not wide whether AI grooming tin beryllium distributed crossed aggregate satellites, leaving a important chunk of AI enactment earthbound. It’s not conscionable 1 occupation that SpaceX needs to solve, but many.

It’s apt that Musk considers xAI’s existent information centers arsenic stopgaps, that erstwhile SpaceX is capable to loft gigawatts worthy of servers into orbit — probably conscionable a fewer years away, successful his caput — he’ll scrap what’s present connected the ground, earthy state turbines included and not person to deliberation astir NIMBYs anymore. The risk, of course, is that he’s wrong.

It’s not conscionable NIMBYs that Musk is disquieted about, though. He’s intelligibly acrophobic that computing demands from AI volition rapidly outstrip what we tin supply present connected Earth. Sprinkled passim the SEC filing are references to “terawatt-scale yearly AI compute growth,” which volition necessitate powerfulness to match. That’s a stunning fig erstwhile you see that each the world’s information centers usage astir 40 gigawatts today. 

This is Musk’s “first principles” reasoning successful action. At immoderate point, helium assumed the satellite volition request an further terawatt worthy of compute each year, and helium worked backmost from there. “We judge that third-party estimates connected information halfway request are constrained by the applicable proviso limitations that beryllium successful a terrestrial discourse and the powerfulness shortage whitethorn beryllium acold greater than what probe estimates suggest,” the institution argues.

Possible? Sure, I suppose. But see that humanity contiguous uses about 35,000 terawatt-hours of vigor annually, oregon astir 4 terawatts connected a continuous basis. Energy request has risen lately, and for AI, it astir apt is successful an signifier of exponential growth, which could either proceed oregon level off. We person nary mode of knowing astatine this point, but if there’s 1 happening Musk is bully at, it’s spotting a inclination astatine its inflection constituent and extrapolating wildly.

Here’s wherever Musk’s problems settee backmost down to Earth. I’m nary rocket scientist, but I fishy that shipping star panels connected a flatbed motortruck uses little vigor than sending them into orbit. Plus, space-ready star panels volition request to beryllium manufactured astatine unprecedented scale. Not insurmountable problems, but besides possibly a distraction. We’ve hardly scratched solar’s imaginable present connected Earth, for example.

The cleanable doesn’t person to beryllium the force of the good. There’s plentifulness of country to amended things present connected Earth adjacent portion we pursuit aft our dreams successful the stars. 

Just 3 years ago, Musk and his colleagues astatine Tesla released the “Master Plan Part 3,” which thoughtfully outlined a “plan to destruct fossil fuels.” A bully starting constituent mightiness beryllium xAI’s information centers.